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An uneven fixture, a broadcast deal, and another code moving on Darwin.
Tasmania enters in 2028 and makes nineteen. Every round then has a team sitting out. A twentieth squares the fixture and creates a tenth game to sell each week. That is why Andrew Demetriou names 2032, the year the next broadcast rights are negotiated, as the target.
Source: Where ex-AFL CEO is pushing for 20th team to join in 2032 — SEN
The Dolphins will play a home game at TIO Stadium every year from 2026 to 2028, replacing a twelve-year deal with Parramatta. When Tasmania enters in 2028, Darwin becomes the only Australian capital city without a team in either code. Rugby league has worked that out. The AFL hasn't, yet.
Source: As the NRL edges into Darwin, does the AFL need to be more proactive in the NT? — The Conversation
Western Australia has reportedly stepped back from a third club, and Canberra is contracted to the Giants until the end of 2032 under a $28.5m deal with the ACT Government. That leaves the Territory in front, with a taskforce of Nathan Buckley, Andrew McLeod, Andrew Demetriou and Peter Jackson, chaired by AFLNT's Sean Bowden, already doing the work.
In July 2026 a sitting Prime Minister stood at the Tiwi Islands grand final, the first to visit in more than 25 years, and said he would love to see a Territory team. The AFL Commission has not moved yet. Every expansion in the game's history has begun here, with everyone in favour except the people who sign the licence.
A stadium on Garramilla Boulevard, under ten minutes' walk from Cavenagh Street.
The Territory produces more elite footballers per head than anywhere else in Australia, and sends every one of them away.
Eleven home games a year, in the dry season, in a city built on visitors.
Darwin in July is Brisbane in March, when the AFL already plays there, with cooler nights and almost no rain.
An $18.9m annual gap, or $6.9m if the Territory is backed the way the AFL backs Gold Coast and GWS.